Risk Management Recession
Continuous and dramatic changes at economical parameters happening on recent times. While Currency and parity are vivacious, oil prices and merchandise prices are surprisingly changing up and down, the global failure risk is a threat for both global ecomomy as well as Turkish economy.
Today capitalism is questioning itself .It is realized that the sources are not unlimited , it is no longer possible to sustain economicy with monetary expansion. Historicly self sufficent limited economies change to imperialist and colonist economy which provide a wealthiness and civizilation (?) despite of blood, death and tears . After the demand of to become a nation and have a national economy, capitalist system and economy convert its weapons to money itself which causes a big gap distribution of income while wars, blood, death, tears never end. The rapid development of technology and communication provoke individuailism and the demand to consume as much as possible is called wild capitalism . While Sources get lessen and climate is changing the policies to rule over world cause to new wars . Human being is looking for a sustainable peace and economic wellfare but socialism, social democracy , libelarism couldn’t serve this issue properly. Communism, theocratic, autocratic and dictatorial ruling systems are fully failed.
There are a lot of technological and scientific discovery achived recent last 50 year while a sustain peace and economical wellfare new approaches can not be achived by sociologists, philosophers and politicians . What we have already is only a economical approach simply depend on changing the ownership and ruling of sources. İndividuals beyond their nationality, race, religion and geography their issue is focused only to “ survive “ . As it happens in a sinking boat.
All these indicates a rising recession with a decreasing growing rate beginning from 2010 .
Petroleum and energy prices, currency and paricy rates , Cds are uncertain and very impulsive. The global failure list which also Turkey is in the first 10 country ,the other countries are our trading and geografic partnersips and some other are emerging countries.
Our 2015 july export realized with a %16,2 decreasing comparing with 2014 same month to 11,181 billion usd , Our 2015 july import realized with a % 8,7 decreasing comparing with 2014 same month to 18,209 billion usd . Current account deficit increases to % 6,5 6,596 billion usd to 7,028 billion usd . This is the highest level of this year. The coverage of export/import was % 66,9 on 2014 july decreased to % 61,4 on 2015 july. Turkey’s EU export share also decreases to % 13,8 .
We can recognize the dissociation of export effected by import of intermediate goods .. (Red indicates the growth of exportation, green usd currencu and blue euro/usd parity)
The dissociation of usd currency and tl at importation shown below,
Bloomberg raw material index decreases % 28 and FT’s metal and mining index decreases % 27 at last year. Petroleum prices comes from 120 usd to 50 usd. BDI come down to deepest point of the year, while the CDS of emerging markets rising.
Than how can the SME esspecially the producer & exporting SME manage the risk management and productivity with the philoshopy of BCD shown with the chart below
SME can manage some of the macro results but not all of them. For this purpose SME must priority to develop the culture and mind set. For a good system and infrastructure ; team work, communuication, share and analysis mind set must be established. One another important issue is “ Şükür “ consciousness. This consciousness provide you to know and understand the value of the wealth you have and also gives a modest behavior which drives you to work harder to protect this wealth.
Partners, empoloyees, colleaques, customers, suppliers, banks, insurance companies and consultans are all the part of this team work. Under this circumstances as you are capable for communication and empathy you can also manage risk management properly and you can provide sustaniabiltiy and consistence for your SME.
At the end of first year BCD service execuation with this philosphopy we are supporting SME customers with economic activities.